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Real interest spiked in June. Inflation expectations dropped while “higher for longer” nominal Fed rates caused the real rate to spike. Remember that the real rate equals nominal rate less inflation.
According to General Equilibrium economic theory, a spike in real interest rate is followed by a decline in real GDP. And that is one of the predictions that I made earlier this year. A spike in real interest rate and then a recession.
INSIGHTS
Real interest spiked in June. Inflation expectations dropped while “higher for longer” nominal Fed rates caused the real rate to spike. Remember that the real rate equals nominal rate less inflation.
According to General Equilibrium economic theory, a spike in real interest rate is followed by a decline in real GDP. And that is one of the predictions that I made earlier this year. A spike in real interest rate and then a recession.
What is your financial exposure to a recession?
What if home prices, stocks, and bonds are all cut in half?
Many advisers are calling for a “rotation to value”. What they mean is that people should sell growth stocks and buy “safer” stocks.
The problem with this idea is that when the SHTF, everything goes down. The good and the bad.
We’re predicting a recession in the second half of 2023, along with real interest going higher (regardless of inflation), oil prices going higher, Russia diverting energy sales to China and away from EU, and stocks to go even lower.
